Knowledge is the best forecast

Published: 13 November 2025

As summer nears, Hawke’s Bay’s weather picture is as fickle as a teenager on a Sunday morning – steady up north, drier down south, and bound to change its mind by Tuesday.  Behind the stats sits a whole-hearted scientist – and an app designed to help the region plan ahead.

Rainfall gauges and soil moisture meters tell the tale. Up north – up Wairoa way – conditions are slightly better than average. But the further south you come – across the Heretaunga Plains and down into central Hawke’s Bay – the readings drop away. While recent rain has softened the picture, this corner of the region has come through a winter of rainfall well below normal.

“Conditions vary across the region; farmers will know how they are in their particular area,” says Dr Kathleen ‘Kozy’ Kozyniak, Hawke’s Bay Regional Council’s Team Leader Air & Land Science. “They’re looking at the trend and thinking ahead.” Some will have already acted – de-stocking or perhaps ordering in supplementary feed.

Tracking the trends is Kozy’s job. She lets the data do the talking. Practical, unflappable and allergic to hyped headlines, she looks at what the instruments record, then quietly presses for more. “You’ve got to be careful not to overreact to a wet week or one dry month,” she says. “But soil moisture levels in some places are nearing stress-point. Compared to the long-term average, we’re below where we’d like to be.”

Raised in Pirimai and educated at Sacred Heart, Kozy earned a PhD in rainfall modelling at the University of Bristol before spending nine years at MetService. Since joining HBRC in 2010, she’s specialised in the science of climate and air – turning complex patterns into insights the community can use. “For years it’s been said that extremes are becoming more extreme,” she notes. “That’s the real challenge: more storms like Gabrielle, and harsher dry spells between. The sooner you can get quality data and information, the better you can plan.”

That same reverence for evidence shapes how she works with people, too. And you quickly see how this diminutive, cycle-mad townie connects with the solid, grounded men and women of the land, many of whom have farmed for generations. She observes as much as she measures. “Kozy is one of our region’s most respected scientific voices,” says Marcus Buddo, Poukawa farmer and chair of the Hawke’s Bay Rural Advisory Group. “We’re damn lucky to have her calm, practical and trusted analysis to help our rural sector plan ahead.”

Kozy is one of our region’s most respected scientific voices. We’re damn lucky to have her calm, practical and trusted analysis to help our rural sector plan ahead.
Marcus Buddo, Hawke’s Bay Rural Advisory Group chair. 

Turning data into direction

Across the region, Kozy and her team monitor 79 rainfall stations and 18 climate sites – charting what the sky gives and what the soil keeps. The readings show the southern plains well below the long-term average, lower even than at the same point before the 2012-13 and 2019-20 droughts. And the outlook? “NIWA’s three-month forecast suggests temperatures will be average or above, rainfall average to below,” Kozy says. “If you have a warmer summer, less rain and plenty of wind – and your soil’s already dry… you can see where this is going.”

Kozy is also a long-standing member of the Rural Advisory Group, or the RAG, as its members affectionately call it: a coalition of farmers, Federated Farmers, MPI, Beef + Lamb and others rooted in rural communities. Her clear, information-rich updates became a fixture of their meetings, and from that collaboration came an idea: a simple, accessible repository of rainfall and soil moisture data.

That idea became the Dry Weather Indicator App – a digital equivalent of the old roadside fire-risk meter. Fed by live HBRC data, it shows regional rainfall and soil-moisture trends in clear traffic-light colours and connects users with trusted rural-support resources.

Launched in 2021, its reach has grown steadily: 1,500 unique users over the past year, 200 checking in weekly through the hottest months – double the year before. Each spends around four minutes a visit: reading the gauges, comparing seasons, sometimes sharing screenshots with neighbours.

“The app is the best tool we have to develop plans for dry weather conditions,” says Buddo. “It’s very local, up-to-date, and gives you a clear picture of how this season is shaping in comparison to previous ones. Perfect for planning and decision-making.”

“It’s not about telling anyone what to do,” Kozy says. “It’s about helping people see what’s happening and think about how it might affect them – and then to help them plan ahead. After all, farmers know their land.”

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